This projection estimates the 2050 value of a portfolio of innovation-focused companies by assigning each a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over 25 years. We derive “realistic” CAGR assumptions from a blend of industry growth forecasts, analyst expectations, and historical tech adoption trends. Early years often see rapid growth in emerging tech markets, then growth tapers as the industry matures. No dividends or dilution are assumed (all earnings reinvested), and results are given in nominal 2050 dollars. Below, we detail the reasoning for each company’s growth rate, then present the projected 2050 values.
| Company | Assumed CAGR (2025–2050) | Projected 2050 Value (Nominal) |
|---|---|---|
| Palantir Technologies (PLTR) | 17% | $83,600 |
| Super Micro Computer (SMCI) | 12% | $40,800 |
| Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) | 15% | $57,600 |
| CoreWeave (CRWV) | 18% | $125,300 |
| Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) | 15% | $51,800 |
| Olo Inc. (OLO) | 10% | $6,500 |
| Redwire Corporation (RDW) | 10% | $8,700 |
| Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) | 15% | $56,000 |
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) | 15% | $72,400 |
| D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) | 22% | $187,500 |
Total 2050 Portfolio Value ≈ $690,000 (nominal), from a starting value of $15,975. This implies an approximate overall CAGR of 16% across the portfolio.
From a practical standpoint, I estimate that the largest companies will be $6-25 trillion market cap companies in 2050 based on 1895-1929, 1929-1958, 1958-1987, 1987-2000, 2000-2025 top ten average valuation growth. Of these companies, the only one that the growth puts it in that range is PLTR; which may under perform and still be 2.5x as large as the 2nd place trillion dollar expected Coreweave. However, these valuations are still conservative market caps for companies in today's market and if one adds to the stocks who maintain a dominant role in a dominant industry; the performance may be even better.
Companies should have a market cap of between $2 billion and $20 billion, $100 million or more in revenue, 40%+ gross margins, positive operating cashflow, be a leader in a growing industry (at least a leader in it's specific segment, as market leaders are often larger than $20 billion) and generally well known (either to Wall St, those in it's field or the general public.) Below is a table of a more comprehensive list of such companies:
| Company (Industry) | Ticker | Market Cap | Revenue (TTM) | Gross Margin | Industry Leadership / Recognition |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okta, Inc. (Cybersecurity) | OKTA | ~$18B | $2.61B | 76.3% | Leader in identity access management; known in cybersecurity |
| Zoom Video Communications (Video Conferencing) | ZM | ~$23B | $4.67B | ~76% | Household name for virtual meetings |
| Palantir Technologies (Data Analytics) | PLTR | ~$267B | $2.87B | ~81% | Leader in big data analytics for government/defense |
| HubSpot, Inc. (Marketing Software) | HUBS | ~$32B | $2.63B | 85.0% | Top inbound marketing CRM provider |
| Datadog, Inc. (Cloud Monitoring) | DDOG | ~$35B | $1.68B | ~75% | Leader in cloud IT monitoring solutions |
| Paycom Software, Inc. (HR/Payroll) | PAYC | ~$17B | $1.37B | 88% | Leading cloud-based payroll software |
| NICE Ltd. (Contact-Center Software) | NICE | ~$13B | $2.17B | ~70% | Market leader in call-center analytics |
| Wix.com Ltd. (Web Development SaaS) | WIX | ~$9B | $1.51B | 63-68% | Leading DIY website building platform |
| Dropbox, Inc. (Cloud Storage) | DBX | ~$8B | $2.35B | 79% | Original leader in cloud file storage |
| DocuSign, Inc. (E-Signature) | DOCU | ~$11B | $2.50B | 79% | Dominant e-signature software provider |
| ZoomInfo Technologies (B2B Data) | ZI | ~$3B | $1.22B | 83% | Leading B2B contact and company intelligence platform |
| CyberArk Software (Cybersecurity) | CYBR | ~$6B | $0.59B | 81% | Leader in privileged access security |
| Lattice Semiconductor (FPGA Chips) | LSCC | ~$7B | $0.66B | ~59% | Leader in low-power FPGA chips |
| Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (Semiconductors) | SWKS | ~$9B | $5.49B | ~41% | Top RF chip supplier for smartphones |
| Zebra Technologies (Enterprise Hardware) | ZBRA | ~$12B | $4.49B | 47% | Leader in barcode/RFID devices |
| Cognex Corporation (Machine Vision) | CGNX | ~$8B | $0.89B | 72% | Leader in industrial machine vision systems |
| Etsy, Inc. (E-Commerce Marketplace) | ETSY | ~$5B | $2.57B | 72.6% | Top marketplace for handmade goods |
| Match Group, Inc. (Online Dating) | MTCH | ~$7B | $3.19B | ~67% | Leader in online dating platforms |
| Pinterest, Inc. (Social Media) | PINS | ~$16B | $2.80B | 76% | Leading visual discovery social media |
| Zillow Group, Inc. (Real Estate Tech) | ZG | ~$16B | $1.99B | 76% | Top online real estate marketplace |
| Wingstop, Inc. (Restaurants) | WING | ~$6B | $0.45B | ~82% | Leader in franchised chicken wing restaurants |
| Crocs, Inc. (Footwear) | CROX | ~$5.5B | $3.56B | 58.8% | Iconic brand in casual footwear |
| YETI Holdings, Inc. (Consumer Goods) | YETI | ~$3B | $1.60B | ~52% | Top brand in premium outdoor coolers |
| Planet Fitness, Inc. (Gyms) | PLNT | ~$6B | $0.93B | ~70% | Leader in affordable fitness gyms |
| Deckers Outdoor Corp. (Footwear/Apparel) | DECK | ~$12B | $3.62B | 52% | Owner of UGG and HOKA brands |
| Bath & Body Works, Inc. (Retail) | BBWI | ~$7B | $7.56B | ~50% | Leader in fragrance and body care retail |
| Logitech International (Peripherals) | LOGI | ~$11B | $5.48B | 41% | Leading maker of PC accessories |
| MarketAxess Holdings (Fintech) | MKTX | ~$8B | $0.718B | ~80% | Leader in electronic bond trading |
| Virtu Financial, Inc. (Fintech) | VIRT | ~$6B | $2.61B | ~42% | Leading market-maker in electronic trading |
| FactSet Research Systems (Financial Data) | FDS | ~$15B | $1.83B | ~35% | Top financial analytics platform |
| TransUnion (Credit Bureau) | TRU | ~$13B | $3.72B | ~64% | Major U.S. credit bureau |
| BioMarin Pharmaceutical (Biotech) | BMRN | ~$15B | $2.10B | ~80% | Leader in rare genetic disorder therapies |
| Align Technology, Inc. (Medtech) | ALGN | ~$18B | $3.73B | ~73% | Leader in clear dental aligners (Invisalign) |
| Insulet Corporation (Medtech) | PODD | ~$14B | $1.37B | ~72% | Leader in tubeless insulin pumps |
Personally, I don't see Crocs or Planet Fitness becoming the next giant trillion dollar companies, some like Docusign & Zoom had their heyday during the pandemic and they may not see that kind of rapid growth again; of the ones in this list that stick out as being potential long term winners not yet mentioned would be LSCC, DDOG, HUBS, ZG; though there are occasional errors in screeners and you'd have to double check some figures.
This 25-year projection illustrates the potential of an innovation-centric portfolio, but it comes with wide error bars. Our CAGR estimates combine near-term industry momentum with long-term growth normalization assumptions. Results hinge on execution, competition, technological feasibility, and timing. If a few moonshot bets succeed (like quantum computing or gene editing), the portfolio may yield outsized gains.
Investors should update assumptions regularly and view projections as directional – not promises. The 16% CAGR assumes that winners offset any setbacks, with growth compounding over time. Diversifying across sectors like AI, biotech, fintech, and space helps balance high risk/high reward positions.
All CAGR estimates and sector forecasts were drawn from publicly available industry reports, including: